Uncertain Times (2001 - 26)

by Peter Carruthers

We small business owners worldwide face a time of intense uncertainty in the light of September 2001's events in the United States. While I don't want to trivialise this immense tragedy - you and I must remain focused on our businesses because we have families who are relying on us to stand tall and care for them. May I share a few thoughts on this issue?

For those of us in South Africa it's easy to use this issue as yet another reason to try and explain why business is poor. And it's easy to get caught in the 'excitement' of each moment. And it's easy to blame some or other person or group for the problems. But the reality is that no matter what happens anywhere in the world, or when it happens - our families still need food and our bills still need to be paid. As the USA responds militarily, and provokes counter responses - the coming days are going to filled with changes. Each of these changes will have a huge emotional impact on us and our markets.

International travel will take some time to return to normal, which should cause sales in all of the tourism related industries [business and holiday] to slow down. Maybe it's time to start looking at the local tourist or business traveller? Or to start using the Internet more effectively for selling and communicating. In fact, the Internet seems to have replaced telephone communications as the various telecom networks failed in New York. There will probably be heavy delays in all forms of air transport - which is really going to challenge those of us reliant on freight movement.

In the true spirit of closing the door after the horse has bolted, flying out of Durban the day after the world changed was a challenge as security guards virtually strip searched all passengers - and then checked very single bag. Travelling with a PC and data projector and all the assorted electronic paraphernalia slowed the system to a crawl as everything needed to be switched on. And the latest versions of Windows take 3 minutes to boot and to shut down - even with a 1GHZ laptop. Maybe you should get to the airport earlier if you plan on going anywhere soon.

With the worldwide economy in turmoil, you can expect your bank to be much more sensitive than it usually is. And somewhat more reluctant to lend money - especially to us little guys. Maybe it's time to re-look at why our businesses are really borrowing money?

Accountants are the first to suggest that a growing business needs an overdraft. And this is great advice if your firm is listed on the JSE. But the day your personal business borrows money from a bank you are required to sign a personal surety. The effect of that document is that you have just given away everything that you have worked for up to this moment in your life - in return for that overdraft. You have placed your spouse and children in jeopardy - for what?

It's easy to illustrate. Somebody walks into your office and asks to open an account. He signs your account application. You are effectively about to lend this stranger money [not in cash but in goods or services]. Since you don't have the money to pay for the goods before you sell them, you go to your bank for an overdraft. In doing so, you give away all your personal asset - just so that you can lend a stranger some money with no guarantee that you will be repaid. Sounds insane when you look at it from this perspective, doesn't it? Actually treating a stranger better than treating your children and the person who loves you and and will die for you? It simply doesn't make sense.

If you're a listed company, it makes sense to borrow money for your business. And it makes sense to expand and grow. Because the people running the business never take personal risks! But if you're running your own firm, and your goal is simply to pay the bills and enjoy your life, and maybe retire in comfort - what is the sense if running such huge risks every day? [At a recent seminar 100% of the business owners agreed that they really didn't want to be massively rich or famous. They just wanted to provide their families with an adequate lifestyle.]

Apologies for that diatribe - but the single biggest cause of stress I see in the eyes of every business owner that I meet - the overdraft! Given the uncertainties facing us - maybe it's time to repay it quickly.

The SA Rand is probably going to plumb new lows. It seems to follow the US$ down whenever the dollar falls, but never seems to recover as fast or as far as the dollar does - which leads to a slow slide backwards. This isn't good if you're importing. But for those of us exporting - it's really good news as our products get relatively cheaper overseas. And for those of us able to export services while using the very low SA cost base - it's good news. [I understand the implications for the economy as a whole - but your responsibility is to look after your own business and take each advantage that you can.

None of us know what will happen in the coming days. I hope that you will treat each new event with peace and equanimity, and that you will prosper despite the uncertainty. God bless you.

© Peter Carruthers, www.petesweekly.co.za

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