Information Security Predictions for 2002

by Steven Nagel

In the year 2001, information security professionals were faced with numerous highly-publicised security exploits such as AnnaKournikova, SirCam, Code Red and the ever-lasting (and ever-changing) Nimda. The New Year will not be a stranger to new and more dangerous malware outbreaks.

Predictions for information security incidences for early 2002 include:

* More macro and script viruses - expect these to emerge at the rate of 200 to 300 a month, although none of them will have any measurable impact as major anti-virus programs will detect most of these.
* More Remote Access Trojans (RATs) or backdoors-in increasing numbers, malware writers continue to disguise RATs and backdoor scripts as "adult" movies and then post them to pornography news groups. Inexperienced users are at risk for this type of exploit.
* More mass-mailing Win32 viruses-viruses, such as SirCam, will continue to cause problems for some corporations that don't filter executable attachments at the email gateway, relying instead on their anti-virus software.
* A new Code Red-emerging in August, Code Red was easily the most interesting and elegant piece of malware seen in 2001, with four versions and two separate code bases. Another worm in this category is likely to appear within the next six months.
* W32/Nimda v1.0-the biggest, most likely malware threat to emerge in the next six months is a variant of Nimda. Given that Nimda was internally listed at v0.5, and given that the original worm didn't exploit all the known vulnerabilities, it's more than reasonable to expect a v1.0.

"Expect to see everything from the mundane to the sensational in 2002.". "The bottom line of malware prevention remains the same: filter, patch strategically and update your anti-virus software. Use common sense to protect your network's vulnerabilities."

Steven Nagel, IT Management, Service and Support, ph: (021) 426 0489, http://www.orderit.co.za

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